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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd