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Plug-in hybrid cars emit nearly five times greater global warming emissions than official figures indicate, as per a new analysis.

Growing Discrepancy Between Official and Actual Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs release just one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel cars, according to analysis conducted by a advocacy organization. That differs sharply with lab tests, which suggested a three-quarters reduction in pollution.

Analysts studied information from onboard fuel consumption monitors of eight hundred thousand cars registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst participating in the report. “This gap is growing and poses a serious problem. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked most of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles travelled in electric power compared to total distance. They determined that just 27% of driving was done in electric mode, while lab estimates suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were well above lab estimates. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate alone, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly a third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to calculations, the underestimation of PHEV emissions allowed several major carmaker groups to escape over €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with EU average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could spend about €500 extra annually in operating expenses than would be estimated under laboratory conditions.

“The strong claims that automakers often promote about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly far from the mark,” stated a automotive expert. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are little better than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ emissions, and operating costs.”

Political Discussion and Industry Pressure

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have lately been brought back into political debates as carmakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ standards. A proposed prohibition on new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive industry and resistance from member states with large car industries.

Some senior officials have proposed PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” solution to include in the legislation.

One external energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the research, described the analysis a “very useful contribution” after a long period in which parts of the car sector claimed there was too little data to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, without question, that the difference in lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they said. “Any regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and considering this evidence.”