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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."